About the Short-Term Numbers

Sources of Projected Employment Data

State short-term occupational projections are developed in the Labor Market Information (LMI) sections of each State Employment Security Agency (SESA).

Projection Period

The projection period includes the short-term period up to 2022 for all participating states. Participating states may project from different quarters within the base and projected years. For example, they may project from 2020:Q2 to 2022:Q2 or from 2020:Q4 to 2022:Q4.

Occupational Data

Each SESA, in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), uses the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) report to gather occupational employment data. The OES data are the basis for the staffing patterns used in the projections. The data collected reflect the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Since there is a conversion to the 2018 SOC, some titles are duplicated but have a different code. To avoid confusion, (SOC 2018) has been added to the title of the new codes. Many occupations are not identified separately in the SOC (and are included in aggregate categories not shown on this site).

Employment may not be sufficient to warrant the development of occupational projections in every occupation in each state, or the data may be confidential. Occupations for which projections are not available are indicated with an (NA) for 'not available.'

For your reference in the majority of states, employment estimates are rounded to the nearest 10. Numerical employment change and average annual openings are rounded to the nearest 10.  If the numerical employment change is shown as (NA), the percent employment change is also shown as (NA).

Data for states that are not currently included will be added as they become available.

Numeric Employment Change

Numeric employment change is the difference in the number of jobs between the base and projected years. A positive number means employment is growing due to the creation of new jobs. A negative number indicates employment is declining in the occupation.

Numeric change is important to consider along with percent change, because both types of change are affected by the size of employment in an occupation. Occupations with a large base of numeric employment may be creating large numbers of new jobs yet have small percent changes. Conversely, occupations with a small base of numeric employment may be creating a small number of new jobs yet have large percent changes.

Percent Employment

Percent employment change indicates how fast employment is expected to increase or decrease during the projection period. The larger the positive percent change, the faster employment is growing. A large positive percent change is generally an indicator of favorable employment prospects. Likewise, the larger the negative percent change, the faster employment is declining, and the more unfavorable the employment prospects.

Average Annual Openings

Average annual openings represent the number of openings per year, expected for a respective occupation or sum of occupations. Annual average openings are the sum of two employment calculations, the average annual numeric employment change (the increase or decrease in the number of jobs associated with the occupation), and average annual separations.

Here, separations represent the number of workers who either leave the labor force or make a significant occupational change. An example of a non-significant occupational change would a move from Teachers Assistant (25-9041) to Secondary Teacher (25-2031), staying within the same major group (indicated in the first two digits of the SOC code). A significant change would be to move from Secondary Teacher (25-2031) to Lawyer (23-1011), by changing the minor group or the broad or detailed occupation.

How Often are the Projections Updated?

Short-term employment projections are developed by each state and are therefore subject to work schedules as well as other related constraints by state. Once the participating states have completed their next round of projections, updates will be made to this site.

Disclaimer

Projection data accessible from this site are the responsibility of each agency that developed the projections. The accuracy of projections for individual occupations is subject to error because of the many unknown factors that will affect the economy over the projection period. While occupational employment projections and related job outlook information can provide valuable inputs to the career decision-making process, they should not be the sole basis for a choice of career.